The Tropics Updates at 2:00 and 8:00 Eastern, more frequently if warranted.

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For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL91): A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates the system is producing winds of 30-35 mph and has a sharp wind shift, though lacks a closed circulation due to its fast forward motion. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for additional development of this system, especially as its forward motion slows down. A tropical depression could form by the early to mid portion of this week as the system initially moves northward before turning eastward tomorrow over the central Subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.